← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 83% | 87% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 8.05 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 5% | 4% | 20.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Filip Bradarić · Cagliari Calcio |
| 36' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Filip Bradarić · Juventus FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Blaise Matuidi · Juventus FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1586.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1936.97 | 1505.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.38 | 20.65 |
| eye test v1 | 1.44 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 28.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 2.80 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.02 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.75 | — |
| state index | 1.79 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |