← Serie A 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 42% | 43% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.37 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 29% | 31% | 3.39 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Vitor Hugo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 72' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 82' | ⚽ | Khouma Babacar · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟥 | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 26 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 935.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1598.77 | 1735.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.84 | 12.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 17.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |