← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eugenio Abbattista, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal win | 40% | 38% | 2.43 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 30% | 34% | 3.23 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 17' | ⚽ | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marco Capuano · Cagliari Calcio |
| 68' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Mora · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1021.00 | 839.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.46 |
| elo | 1605.56 | 1618.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.02 | -0.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.64 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.67 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |