← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Minelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 66% | 57% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.05 | value: +8% |
| Pescara win | 15% | 22% | 6.59 | value: +43% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Michele Fornasier · Pescara |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Hrvoje Miličević · Pescara |
| 64' | 🟨 | Bruno Alves · Cagliari Calcio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Grigoris Kastanos · Pescara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sulley Muntari · Pescara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sulley Muntari · Pescara |
| 90' | 🟥 | Sulley Muntari · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Sant'Elia |
| coach days | 699.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1609.67 | 1467.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.99 | 0.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 38.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.30 | 26.99 |
| state index | 0.31 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |