← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 42% | 50% | 2.35 | value: +17% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 32% | 28% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Carlão · Torino FC |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Marco Borriello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 24' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 33' | ⚽ | Adem Ljajić · Torino FC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Adem Ljajić · Torino FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kwang-Song Han · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Sant'Elia |
| coach days |
| 678.00 |
| 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 3.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1477.54 | 1563.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.72 | -0.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 46.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.57 |
| league points | 35.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |