← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 52% | 46% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.90 | value: +9% |
| Torino FC win | 23% | 26% | 4.31 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Geoffrey Kondogbia · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 33' | ⚽ | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Antonio Candreva · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maxi López · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 260.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1565.03 | 1679.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.27 | 30.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | 1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 39.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| state index | 0.09 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |