← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 37% | 42% | 2.67 | value: +13% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 33% | 29% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Adrian Stoian · Crotone |
| 32' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Aleandro Rosi · Crotone |
| 59' | 🟨 | Boadu Maxwell Acosty · Crotone |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 69' | ⚽ | Marco Borriello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Andrea Barberis · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 240.00 | 636.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1415.62 | 1465.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.27 | -9.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 13.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.94 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.52 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |