← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Celi Domenico, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 75% | 76% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.80 | fair |
| Empoli win | 8% | 7% | 12.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Éder · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 41' | 🟨 | Omar El Kaddouri · Empoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Geoffrey Kondogbia · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 49' | 🟨 | Federico Dimarco · Empoli |
| 54' | ⚽ | Antonio Candreva · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 103.00 | 226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1648.95 | 1467.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.95 | 2.09 |
| eye test v1 | 1.12 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 45.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.70 |
| league points | 42.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.00 |
| state index | 1.02 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |