← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 39% | 39% | 2.53 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 32% | 32% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Roberto Colombo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 28' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · Genoa CFC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Marco Borriello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 44' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marco Capuano · Cagliari Calcio |
| 52' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 60' | ⚽ | Marco Borriello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Diego Farias · Cagliari Calcio |
| 65' | 🟨 | Diego Farias · Cagliari Calcio |
| 76' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marco Capuano · Cagliari Calcio |
| 79' | 🟥 | Marco Capuano · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 14 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Sant'Elia |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 594.00 | 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1456.80 | 1542.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.99 | -29.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 47.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| league points | 23.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |