← Primera Division 2025-26 · Tue, May 12, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Guzman
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 36% | 24% | 2.63 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 36% | 23% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 53% | 3.40 | value: +80% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| CA Osasuna +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Javi Galán · CA Osasuna |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Ademola Lookman · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 30' | 🟨 | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 52' | 🟨 | Marcos Llorente · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kike Barja · CA Osasuna |
| 57' | 🟨 | Koke · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marc Pubill · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 71' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marcos Llorente · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 79' | 🟥 | Marcos Llorente · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 85' | 🟨 | Robin Le Normand · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Flavien Boyomo · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kike Barja · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 315.00 | 5276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1705.12 | 1877.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.13 | 0.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 42.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 4.02 | 3.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.86 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.67 | 27.72 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.90 |