← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: I. Diaz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 37% | 39% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 40% | 2.88 | value: +16% |
| Getafe CF win | 30% | 20% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 70% | 71% | 1.36 | fair |
| Over | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · Getafe CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 46' | 🟨 | Zaid Romero · Getafe CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mario Martín · Getafe CF |
| 68' | ⚽ | Roberto Fernández · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sebastián Boselli · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edu Expósito · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pere Milla · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luis Milla · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 263.00 |
| 1085.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1616.74 | 1641.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.37 | 33.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.78 |
| league points | 37.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 32.20 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -2.06 |
| solidity v1 | -1.91 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.63 | 29.61 |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | -1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.77 |