← Primera Division 2025-26 · Mon, Feb 9, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 55% | 61% | 1.73 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 21% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Villarreal CF −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Jose Salinas · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 16' | 🟨 | Tajon Buchanan · Villarreal CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Villarreal CF |
| 41' | ⚽ (og) | Jose Salinas · Villarreal CF |
| 50' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Villarreal CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Edu Expósito · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 55' | ⚽ | Alberto Moleiro · Villarreal CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Clemens Riedel · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pape Gueye · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | ⚽ | Leandro Cabrera · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 89' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio de la Ceramica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 831.00 |
| 223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1741.12 | 1644.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.29 | -50.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 42.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 9.20 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.62 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 31.31 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.18 |