← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 40% | 46% | 2.40 | value: +11% |
| Levante UD win | 31% | 32% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 22% | 3.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD +0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 37% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 63% | 2.11 | value: +33% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Pablo Martínez · Levante UD |
| 37' | 🟨 | Igor Zubeldia · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 45' | ⚽ | Takefusa Kubo · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jon Gorrotxategi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 53' | 🟨 | Unai Vencedor · Levante UD |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kervin Arriaga · Levante UD |
| 73' | 🟨 | Iván Romero · Levante UD |
| 74' | 🟨 | Adrián de la Fuente · Levante UD |
| 84' | 🟨 | Manuel Sánchez · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Adrián de la Fuente · Levante UD |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 80.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1571.60 | 1632.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.44 | -12.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 11.80 | 7.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -1.36 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 25.71 |
| state index | -0.96 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.23 |