← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto Grado, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 38% | 33% | 2.57 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 34% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.41 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 52% | 2.03 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ander Barrenetxea · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 73' | 🟨 | Santiago Mouriño · Villarreal CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Luiz Júnior · Villarreal CF |
| 87' | ⚽ | Ander Barrenetxea · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ilias Akhomach · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juan Foyth · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alberto Moleiro · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 60.00 | 760.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.04 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1663.86 | 1786.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.87 | -3.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.81 | 4.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 2.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.62 |
| solidity v1 | 1.09 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 26.46 |
| state index | 0.89 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.97 |