← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 45% | 40% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.51 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 27% | 36% | 3.60 | value: +31% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié +0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Valencia CF +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 50% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 50% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Natan · Real Betis Balompié |
| 69' | 🟨 | Pepelu · Valencia CF |
| 74' | ⚽ | Cucho Hernández · Real Betis Balompié |
| 75' | 🟨 | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli · Real Betis Balompié |
| 76' | 🟨 | César Tárrega · Valencia CF |
| 82' | ⚽ | Luis Rioja · Valencia CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Valentín Gómez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 131.00 | 1926.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1638.54 | 1770.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.05 | 10.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -0.63 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 28.23 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 0.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.26 |