← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 48% | 51% | 2.03 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 23% | 20% | 4.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Elche CF −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 50% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 50% | 2.20 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand