← Primera Division 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 50% | 53% | 1.95 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 16% | 3.83 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 24% | 31% | 4.04 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 65% | 1.75 | value: +13% |
| Under | 45% | 35% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de La Cartuja |