← Primera Division 2025-26 · Mon, Sep 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 42% | 39% | 2.28 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.23 | value: +10% |
| Mallorca win | 27% | 27% | 3.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Mallorca −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 61% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 39% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Pere Milla · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 34' | ⚽ | Roberto Fernández · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 43' | 🟨 | Pol Lozano · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟥 | Pere Milla · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mateu Morey · Mallorca |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 65' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Kike García · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kike García · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 24 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 76.00 | 441.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1682.62 | 1654.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.20 | -18.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 15.06 | 15.98 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.56 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.95 | 27.54 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 0.54 |