← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 17, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 58% | 66% | 1.66 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.90 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 17% | 13% | 5.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +1 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid +1 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 56% | 1.93 | value: +8% |
| Over | 49% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand