← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 58% | 55% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.76 | fair |
| Leganes win | 16% | 18% | 5.99 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Leganes −0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Dodi Lukebakio · Sevilla FC |
| 7' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Leganes |
| 21' | ⚽ | Kike Salas · Sevilla FC |
| 28' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Darko Brašanac · Leganes |
| 62' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · Leganes |
| 70' | ⚽ | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Javier Hernández · Leganes |
| 75' | 🟨 | Javier Hernández · Leganes |
| 76' | 🟨 | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 80' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 🟨 |
| Yan Diomande · Leganes |
| 83' | 🟨 | Yvan Neyou · Leganes |
| 89' | 🟨 | Adrià Pedrosa · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 33.00 | 673.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1671.24 | 1598.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.98 | 1.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| league points | 37.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 9.89 | 9.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.59 |
| solidity v1 | 0.49 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.00 | 30.11 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.32 |