← Primera Division 2024-25 · Thu, Apr 24, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 41% | 41% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.01 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 26% | 28% | 3.68 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 54% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 46% | 2.76 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 32' | 🟥 | Dodi Lukebakio · Sevilla FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pablo Ibáñez · CA Osasuna |
| 64' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Bryan Zaragoza · CA Osasuna |
| 87' | 🟨 | Juanlu Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jesús Areso · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 2519.00 | 23.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1694.53 | 1679.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.29 | -31.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.71 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 41.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 4.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.88 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.89 | 26.94 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.88 |