← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 49% | 58% | 1.99 | value: +16% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 26% | 20% | 3.84 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.76 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié +0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Real Madrid CF +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 65% | 1.62 | value: +6% |
| Under | 41% | 35% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Brahim Díaz · Real Madrid CF |
| 32' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 34' | ⚽ | Johnny Cardoso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 53' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid CF |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 57' | 🟨 | David Alaba · Real Madrid CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 82' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Real Betis Balompié |
| 86' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergi Altimira · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1673.00 | 1369.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1692.93 | 1935.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.92 | -18.25 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 91.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 64.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 20.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 1.78 |
| solidity v1 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 29.21 | 28.99 |
| state index | 0.67 | 1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.71 |