← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Hernández
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 59% | 64% | 1.64 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Leganes win | 15% | 12% | 6.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Leganes −1 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −1 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 53% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 47% | 2.37 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand