← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 16, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 48% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 23% | 24% | 4.30 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Sevilla FC +0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 56% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 44% | 2.39 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Juanlu Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Tamás Nikitscher · Valladolid |
| 52' | 🟨 | Adrià Pedrosa · Sevilla FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Juanlu Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Anuar · Valladolid |
| 81' | 🟨 | Selim Amallah · Valladolid |
| 84' | ⚽ | Dodi Lukebakio · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mamadou Sylla · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |
| coach days | 15.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1521.64 | 1638.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.90 | -0.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| league points | 15.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 8.80 | 6.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -1.07 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 27.04 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.21 |