← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 35% | 34% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 43% | 2.88 | value: +23% |
| Sevilla FC win | 31% | 23% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sevilla FC +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 63% | 1.41 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 37% | 3.04 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Saúl Ñíguez · Sevilla FC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Coba da Costa · Getafe CF |
| 37' | 🟨 | Juan Berrocal · Getafe CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Dodi Lukebakio · Sevilla FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Sevilla FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Juan Iglesias · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| coach days | 672.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1670.46 | 1691.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.55 | 11.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -0.12 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.69 | 27.03 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.24 |