← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 76% | 75% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.66 | value: +10% |
| Sevilla FC win | 9% | 9% | 11.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −1.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Sevilla FC −1.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 55% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 45% | 3.06 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 12' | 🟨 | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Sevilla FC |
| 20' | ⚽ | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
| 34' | ⚽ | Rodrygo · Real Madrid CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Brahim Díaz · Real Madrid CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kike Salas · Sevilla FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | Dodi Lukebakio · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days | 1300.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1992.68 | 1688.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.57 | -0.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 37.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 7.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.99 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 26.95 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.70 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 0.76 |