← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 69% | 71% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.91 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 10% | 9% | 9.73 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid −1.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Sevilla FC −1.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Riyadh Air Metropolitano |
| 79' | ⚽ | Samuel Lino · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 87' | 🟨 | Javi Galán · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 4756.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1895.25 | 1683.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.70 | -6.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 32.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 1.44 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.83 | 26.08 |
| state index | 1.51 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 0.91 |