← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 38% | 35% | 2.57 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 24% | 3.04 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 30% | 41% | 3.23 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 66% | 1.56 | value: +4% |
| Over | 38% | 34% | 2.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | César Tárrega · Valencia CF |
| 14' | ⚽ (og) | Hugo Duro · Real Betis Balompié |
| 19' | 🟨 | Enzo Barrenechea · Valencia CF |
| 50' | ⚽ | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 53' | ⚽ | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 56' | ⚽ | Diego López · Valencia CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | Chimy Ávila · Real Betis Balompié |
| 86' | 🟨 | André Almeida · Valencia CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Cédric Bakambu · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | César Tárrega · Valencia CF |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 🟨 |
| José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Youssouf Sabaly · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 661.00 | 1575.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.23 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1644.56 | 1749.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.45 | 12.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| league points | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 26.91 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.02 | 26.44 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.33 |