← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 6, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Pulido
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 40% | 43% | 2.42 | value: +4% |
| Athletic Club win | 31% | 29% | 3.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Girona −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 56% | 1.87 | value: +5% |
| Over | 48% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Ladislav Krejcí · Girona |
| 39' | ⚽ | Yáser Asprilla · Girona |
| 41' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Vivian · Athletic Club |
| 56' | 🟨 | Paulo Gazzaniga · Girona |
| 57' | 🟨 | David López · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yangel Herrera · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟥 | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Estadi Municipal de Montilivi |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Christian Stuani · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1193.00 | 858.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1753.36 | 1766.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.37 | 25.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.16 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.20 | 26.78 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.22 |