← Primera Division 2024-25 · Tue, Sep 24, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Pulido
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 59% | 67% | 1.62 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 4.01 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 16% | 12% | 6.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sevilla FC −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 56% | 1.88 | value: +6% |
| Over | 48% | 44% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Marcos André · Valladolid |
| 37' | 🟨 | Lucas Rosa · Valladolid |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | David Torres · Sevilla FC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Kike Pérez · Valladolid |
| 66' | 🟨 | Dodi Lukebakio · Sevilla FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marcão · Sevilla FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Stanko Jurić · Valladolid |
| 85' | ⚽ | Chidera Ejuke · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peque Fernández · Sevilla FC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 🟨 |
| Marcão · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marcão · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Torres · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 115.00 | 542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1673.88 | 1604.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.28 | -16.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 3.21 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | -0.58 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | -1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 25.75 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 0.68 |