← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: José Munuera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 85% | 78% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 13% | 9.75 | value: +31% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 5% | 8% | 21.31 | value: +72% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −2.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −2.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 68% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 32% | 3.31 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Pol Lozano · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 32' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 54' | ⚽ (og) | Thibaut Courtois · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 58' | ⚽ | Daniel Carvajal · Real Madrid CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Joan García · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 75' | ⚽ | Rodrygo · Real Madrid CF |
| 78' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 10 |
| 14 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 5 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1208.00 |
| 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1952.20 | 1603.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.86 | 8.71 |
| eye test v1 | 1.50 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.86 |
| league points | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 1.52 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.46 | 25.01 |
| state index | 1.70 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.17 |