← Primera Division 2024-25 · Fri, Aug 23, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 44% | 37% | 2.21 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 29% | 34% | 3.32 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.63 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Villarreal CF −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Arnaut Danjuma · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dodi Lukebakio · Sevilla FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Arnaut Danjuma · Villarreal CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Eric Bailly · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucien Agoumé · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal CF |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| ⚽ |
| Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 83.00 | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1695.15 | 1784.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.42 | 24.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | -1.49 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 29.24 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.03 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.62 |