← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 10, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 45% | 47% | 2.15 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 28% | 25% | 3.45 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Villarreal CF −0.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 57% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 43% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Bertrand Traoré · Villarreal CF |
| 30' | ⚽ | Guido Rodríguez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 40' | ⚽ | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Willian José · Real Betis Balompié |
| 48' | ⚽ (og) | Sokratis · Villarreal CF |
| 67' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Real Betis Balompié |
| 69' | 🟨 | Alberto Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Real Betis Balompié |
| 70' | 🟥 | Chimy Ávila · Real Betis Balompié |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alberto Moreno |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 70' | 🟥 | Alberto Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Filip Jørgensen · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Johnny Cardoso · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1317.00 |
| 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1705.69 | 1681.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.67 | 14.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.60 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| league points | 42.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.33 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 29.02 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.12 |