← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
| Granada win | 20% | 26% | 4.75 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Villarreal CF −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 61% | 1.70 | value: +4% |
| Under | 43% | 39% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 15' | 🟨 | Kamil Piątkowski · Granada |
| 19' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 32' | ⚽ | Étienne Capoue · Villarreal CF |
| 47' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Villarreal CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ricard Sánchez · Granada |
| 84' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Theo Corbeanu · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 123.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.15 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1731.46 | 1560.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.72 | -4.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 29.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 8.71 | 13.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.20 | 26.32 |
| state index | 0.85 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.24 |