← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 46% | 39% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.32 | value: +7% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 25% | 29% | 4.03 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Athletic Club +0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 58% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 42% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Chimy Ávila · Real Betis Balompié |
| 30' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Real Betis Balompié |
| 32' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Yuri Berchiche · Real Betis Balompié |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nico Williams · Athletic Club |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nico Williams · Athletic Club |
| 40' | 🟥 | Nico Williams · Athletic Club |
| 41' | 🟨 | Álex Berenguer · Athletic Club |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 47' | 🟨 | Daniel Vivian · Athletic Club |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 59' |
| 🟨 |
| Imanol García de Albéniz · Athletic Club |
| 67' | ⚽ | Johnny Cardoso · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1303.00 | 634.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1743.46 | 1807.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.82 | -3.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.70 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.86 |
| league points | 39.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 5.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 27.95 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.02 |