← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 18, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 41% | 39% | 2.41 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 29% | 2.88 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 25% | 31% | 3.89 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 74% | 57% | 1.31 | fair |
| Over | 26% | 43% | 3.69 | value: +57% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| -5' | 🟥 | Siebe Van Der Heyden · Mallorca |
| 4' | ⚽ | Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca |
| 31' | 🟨 | Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca |
| 38' | ⚽ | Takefusa Kubo · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 41' | 🟨 | Robin Le Normand · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 45' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Predrag Rajković · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟥 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadi Mallorca Son Moix |
| 61' |
| 🟨 |
| Igor Zubeldia · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jon Pacheco · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 82' | 🟨 | Matija Nastasić · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergi Darder · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samú Costa · Mallorca |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mikel Merino · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mikel Merino · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Beñat Turrientes · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 719.00 | 1905.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1592.28 | 1755.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.17 | -21.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 34.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 8.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.13 | 1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 28.04 | 25.71 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.90 |