← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 27, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 71% | 73% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 6.03 | value: +3% |
| Villarreal CF win | 13% | 10% | 8.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Villarreal CF −1.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 69% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · FC Barcelona |
| 41' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ilias Akhomach · Villarreal CF |
| 60' | ⚽ | İlkay Gündoğan · FC Barcelona |
| 68' | ⚽ | Pedri · FC Barcelona |
| 68' | 🟨 | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 68' | 🟨 | Eric Bailly · Villarreal CF |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Eric Bailly · FC Barcelona |
| 84' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Villarreal CF |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys |
| 🟨 |
| Ronald Araújo · FC Barcelona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Yerson Mosquera · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge Cuenca · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 210.00 | 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1927.60 | 1692.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.95 | -35.33 |
| eye test v1 | 2.27 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 45.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 44.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.33 | 0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.07 | 27.81 |
| state index | 1.13 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 3.23 | 1.54 |