← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 59% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +6% |
| Granada win | 18% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −1 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Valencia CF −1 | 46% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 45% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Granada |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ricard Sánchez · Granada |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Pepelu · Valencia CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Raúl Torrente · Granada |
| 51' | 🟨 | Javier Guerra · Valencia CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Villar · Granada |
| 83' | 🟨 | Diego López · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bryan Zaragoza · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| coach days | 277.00 | 369.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1685.59 | 1589.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.14 | -7.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| league points | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 5.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.24 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.80 | 26.67 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -1.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 2.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.66 |