← Primera Division 2023-24 · Tue, Sep 26, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 57% | 58% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +4% |
| Almeria win | 19% | 18% | 5.18 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Almeria −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 59% | 1.80 | value: +7% |
| Under | 47% | 41% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla FC |
| 8' | ⚽ | Dodi Lukebakio · Sevilla FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Suso · Sevilla FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kaiky · Almeria |
| 83' | 🟨 | Suso · Sevilla FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Iddrisu Baba · Almeria |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kike Salas · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 209.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1694.05 | 1553.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.12 | -18.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 3.11 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.10 | 23.29 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.75 |