← Primera Division 2023-24 · Mon, Sep 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 40% | 38% | 2.43 | fair |
| Granada win | 33% | 33% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Girona +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 45% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 55% | 2.29 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Viktor Tsygankov · Girona |
| 23' | 🟨 | Myrto Uzuni · Granada |
| 31' | ⚽ | Savinho · Girona |
| 33' | 🟨 | Óscar Melendo · Granada |
| 34' | ⚽ | David López · Girona |
| 63' | ⚽ | Myrto Uzuni · Granada |
| 70' | 🟨 | Raúl Torrente · Granada |
| 72' | 🟨 | Yan Couto · Girona |
| 85' | ⚽ | Lucas Boyé · Granada |
| 89' | ⚽ | Yan Couto · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 321.00 | 809.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1618.64 | 1718.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.11 | 27.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| league points | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 16.29 | 15.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -1.77 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.89 | 25.79 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.38 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.18 |