← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 17, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 37% | 40% | 2.69 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 33% | 30% | 2.95 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 30% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| CA Osasuna +0 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 61% | 1.41 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 39% | 3.09 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Fabrizio Angileri · Getafe CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 36' | ⚽ | Stefan Mitrović · Getafe CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 41' | 🟨 | Juanmi Latasa · Getafe CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Iker Muñoz · CA Osasuna |
| 51' | ⚽ | José Ángel Carmona · Getafe CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | David Soria · Getafe CF |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 60' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Getafe CF |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| ⚽ |
| Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Iker Muñoz · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefan Mitrović · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 169.00 | 1934.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1651.18 | 1679.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.48 | -16.99 |
| eye test v1 | -1.24 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| league points | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 30.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 14.91 | 13.71 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.06 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.34 | 26.82 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.56 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.21 |