← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 63% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.67 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 15% | 16% | 6.77 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona +1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| CA Osasuna +1 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 62% | 1.73 | value: +7% |
| Under | 44% | 38% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jesús Areso · CA Osasuna |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jules Koundé · FC Barcelona |
| 76' | ⚽ | Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 83' | 🟨 | Frenkie de Jong · FC Barcelona |
| 84' | 🟥 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alejandro Balde · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 1920.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1633.97 | 1865.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.89 | -3.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 1.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 90.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 72.40 |
| rest days | 3.02 | 7.15 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 2.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.23 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 29.17 | 26.76 |
| state index | 0.30 | 1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 2.59 |