← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 66% | 69% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.54 | fair |
| Granada win | 13% | 11% | 8.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −1.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 57% | 1.96 | value: +11% |
| Under | 50% | 43% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Takefusa Kubo · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ignasi Miquel · Granada |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Robin Le Normand · Granada |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lucas Boyé · Granada |
| 44' | ⚽ | Takefusa Kubo · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 53' | 🟨 | Sergio Ruiz Alonso · Granada |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 54' | 🟨 | Víctor Díaz · Granada |
| 59' | ⚽ | Martín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 67' | ⚽ | Ander Barrenetxea · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
| 76' | ⚽ (og) | Adria Miquel Bosch Sanchis · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 83' | ⚽ | Lucas Boyé · Granada |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bryan Zaragoza · Granada |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bryan Zaragoza · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1736.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1806.93 | 1624.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.04 | 8.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.72 |
| league points | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 6.77 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | -1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 28.49 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 2.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.19 |