← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 19, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 35% | 35% | 2.85 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 33% | 36% | 2.96 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club +0 | 51% | 1.96 |
| CA Osasuna +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 56% | 1.52 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 44% | 2.69 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 20' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 38' | 🟨 | Íñigo Lekue · Athletic Club |
| 47' | 🟨 | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 59' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 59' | 🟨 | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 59' | 🟥 | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 71' | 🟨 | Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟥 | Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Unai Simón · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 1905.00 | 444.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 9.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1644.92 | 1643.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.32 | -26.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.19 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.44 | 26.68 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.41 |