← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Jun 4, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Pulido
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 39% | 48% | 2.51 | value: +20% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 34% | 32% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| RC Celta de Vigo +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 45% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 55% | 1.99 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Gabri Veiga · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 62' | 🟨 | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 65' | ⚽ | Gabri Veiga · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ansu Fati · FC Barcelona |
| 81' | 🟨 | Franco Cervi · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 215.00 | 580.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1595.27 | 1873.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.15 | -29.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 44.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| league points | 40.00 | 88.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 72.20 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 2.59 |
| solidity v1 | -0.12 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.43 | 27.23 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | 1.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 2.54 |