← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Jun 4, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 46% | 43% | 2.09 | fair |
| Girona win | 28% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.69 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Girona −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 49% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Yangel Herrera · Girona |
| 52' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 56' | 🟨 | Bernardo Espinosa · Girona |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 75' | ⚽ | Reinier · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulo Gazzaniga · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yan Couto · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 1829.00 | 703.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1671.15 | 1690.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.56 | -7.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 45.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 50.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 6.98 | 6.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | -0.52 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.70 | 25.47 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.30 |