← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, May 14, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 42% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 29% | 28% | 3.52 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +4% |
| Over | 46% | 42% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · Valencia CF |
| 19' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Valencia CF |
| 27' | 🟨 | Luca De La Torre · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Gabri Veiga · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 60' | ⚽ | Haris Seferović · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ilaix Moriba · Valencia CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 88' | ⚽ | Alberto Mari · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| André Almeida · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 194.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1675.30 | 1646.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.19 | 1.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.59 |
| league points | 39.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 10.67 | 10.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | -0.09 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 25.87 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.94 |