← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 60% | 51% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +9% |
| Girona win | 16% | 21% | 6.51 | value: +40% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 11' | 🟨 | Igor Zubeldia · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 24' | ⚽ | David Silva · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 37' | ⚽ | Yan Couto · Girona |
| 38' | 🟨 | Robin Le Normand · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 45' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 49' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Girona |
| 55' | 🟨 | Arnau Martínez · Girona |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ander Barrenetxea · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
| 87' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Girona |
| 87' | 🟥 | Oriol Romeu · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1624.00 | 681.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1805.37 | 1705.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.54 | 52.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 61.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 10.67 | 8.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | 1.13 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 25.81 |
| state index | 1.08 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.38 |