← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: José Munuera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 47% | 57% | 2.13 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | 3.22 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 23% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +0.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Athletic Club +0.5 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 59% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 41% | 2.57 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleix Vidal · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟥 | Aleix Vidal · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Unai Simón · Athletic Club |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sergi Darder · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 7.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 4.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1563.15 | 1674.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.34 | -8.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -0.53 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.54 | 26.62 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.46 |