← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 2, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 37% | 39% | 2.65 | value: +5% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.12 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 61% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 39% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Ramón Terrats · Villarreal CF |
| 27' | 🟨 | Igor Zubeldia · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 53' | 🟨 | Pepe Reina · Villarreal CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Juan Foyth · Villarreal CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Martín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 76' | 🟨 | David Silva · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
| 81' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Villarreal CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nicolas Jackson · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolas Jackson · Villarreal CF |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nicolas Jackson · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 1005.00 | 1583.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.62 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1758.76 | 1786.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.03 | -15.42 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 41.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 66.40 |
| rest days | 14.05 | 14.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | 1.08 |
| solidity v1 | 1.15 | 1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 29.34 | 27.18 |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | 1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.27 |